Sensitivity Analysis has been introduced to Project Analysis to allow a user to investigate the impact of variations in key parameters on the analysis results. A user can define any number of sensitivity scenarios in which any of the 18 key parameters can be varied. The 18 key parameters cover unit costs, vehicle use, traffic levels and growth, and net benefits. One or more key parameters are varied by defining a multiplication factor and the effects on the outcome an the analysis will be determined. A user determines which variables to vary and this judgment will depend upon the kind of investigation being conducted. Typically the key parameters will be varied to reflect the potential range of forecasts for the parameters.
Budget Scenario Analysis
HDM-4 version 2.0 allows the user to specify an unlimited number of budget scenarios. Each budget scenario defines the road agency financial resources available over the analysis period. The optimised work programme will be produced for each of the selected budget scenarios therefore allowing the user to compare the effects of different funding levels on the network being analysed.
Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)
Multi-Criteria analysis (MCA) in HDM-4 project analysis provides a means of comparing projects using criteria that cannot easily be assigned an economic cost.
MCA is supported for a Project Analysis and supports 10 criteria to evaluate:
MCA in HDM-4 is performed using an implementation of the Analytical Hierarchy Process ( AHP ) (Saaty 1980).
Estimation of Social Benefits
It has often been necessary to include the social benefits of road investments within HDM-4. The simple framework for including social benefits has now been made more transparent by incorporating them within the exogenous costs and benefits user interface.
A road network is a considerable resource that has a significant asset value. It is therefore important to effectively manage this asset and to be able to estimate the financial and economic value of road assets as a function of the level of investment. This optional component of HDM-4 Version 2.0 allows a user to estimate the asset value of a network being analysed during the time period of the analysis.
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